Austin Housing Market Update, November 9, 2026: Pending Sales Drop 24% Heading Into the Holidays

This post is a summary of my weekly Austin Market Update video. To see all of the charts and data, watch the full video on YouTube.

Buyer activity in the Austin area dropped sharply last week. New pending contracts were down 23.7% from the same week last year, and closed sales fell to 310. Here is what the numbers show, and what they mean if you are buying or selling in the last weeks of 2026.

Last week's numbers, Austin metro

Source: Unlock MLS (Austin MLS), weekly data for the week ending November 8, 2026.

Buyers pulled back

Pending contracts tell you what buyers are doing right now, and this is where the drop shows up. The market logged about 420 new pendings last week. The week before it was 630, and in the last two years it was around 600 at this point in the fall.

Put another way, for every four buyers writing a contract at this time last year, there are three today.

Closed sales lag by four to five weeks, so last week's 310 closings reflect contracts written in early October. There were about 545 pendings four weeks ago, which suggests some contracts also fell through before closing.

City of Austin

Inside the city limits the drop was steeper. There were 147 new pendings last week, down almost 26% from a year ago, and closed sales were down 40%.

Source: Unlock MLS (Austin MLS), weekly data for the week ending November 8, 2026.

Prices are testing $400,000

The median sale price in the Austin metro was $405,000 in October. It peaked near $550,000 in May 2022 and has stepped down each year since, though each year's drop has been smaller than the one before.

My opinion, and it is only that: I expect the median to dip below $400,000 before the end of the year. Nobody can promise where prices go from there. It is the level I will be watching as we start 2027.

Source: Unlock MLS (Austin MLS), monthly median sale price, pulled November 9, 2026.

Rates came off their peak

Mortgage rates topped 7.5% about a month ago, according to Mortgage News Daily, which lines up with when contract activity slowed. They have eased since then as the 10-year Treasury yield came down. The things that pushed rates up are still out there, so I would not count on a straight line down. A lender can tell you what rate and options fit your situation, and I am happy to recommend local lenders.

Source: Mortgage News Daily, as of November 9, 2026.

First-time buyers are still scarce

Nationally, first-time buyers made up 22% of home purchases over the past year, just above last year's record low of 21%. Before 2008 the norm was about 40%. The median age of a first-time buyer held at 40, a record high, and a record 10% of first-time buyers used an inheritance toward the purchase.

Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, released November 5, 2026, as reported by Inman News.

What this means for sellers

The next two weeks matter if you want to close in 2026. A buyer who writes a contract before Thanksgiving will most likely close in December. After Thanksgiving, most closings will land in January unless the buyer is paying cash. If your price or presentation needs an adjustment, now is the time to make it. Here is how I price and market a listing.

What this means for buyers

You have fewer buyers to compete with, and homes are closing further below list price than they were in the spring. If you are looking at new construction, this is also the time of year when builders often offer incentives to close before December 31. If you are getting ready to write an offer, read how the option period works first.

Planning for 2027?

If you are thinking about buying, selling or investing in the Austin area next year, book a call and we can map out your timing. I post a new market update every Monday on YouTube.

Ryan Kelly Group | Keller Williams Realty